Some of you have expressed your surprise at the stock market’s recent strength, particularly with oil prices over $100 a barrel due to the Iran conflict. To us, the amount of artificial intelligence (AI) investment is even more surprising. But that’s not all there is to this story...

“History doesn’t repeat itself…but it often rhymes.” -Mark Twain

As the Iran conflict enters its second month, geopolitical stress continues to test investors. Historical stock market performance during geopolitical conflicts helps remind us that stocks are far more resilient than the near-term shocks may suggest. As we assess today’s environment and the uncertainties surrounding ongoing military operations in Iran, we focus on two past conflicts we believe are instructive, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

Despite the severity of recent events and the uncertain path forward, a historical stock market perspective is helpful. History shows that markets often recover quickly once conditions stabilize, typically within days or a few weeks, as long as the U.S. economy doesn’t slide into recession. Geopolitical shocks can elevate volatility, as this one has, but they do not typically derail longer‑term market trends unless the economic impact becomes both deep and persistent.

Climbing a Wall of Worry

For a look back on what we've learned and taken away from 2025, read Brian's most recent market update. Stocks had another strong year in 2025 as most market benchmarks enjoyed their third straight year of double-digit returns. Last year’s performance was particularly rewarding given how much stocks overcame — notably tariffs. Tariffs weren’t the only obstacle, as market concentration, high valuations, deficit spending, and inflation occupied spots on investors’ lists of worries. 

Earnings, Interest Rates, AI and the K-shaped Economy Challenge

Stock investors were rewarded for staying the course in November as broad stock market averages recovered from a mid-month dip to end near record highs. The comeback extended the S&P 500 Index’s streak of monthly gains to seven – something to be thankful for alongside the arrival of the holiday season. Increasing confidence in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts was a key driver, but renewed confidence in the economic and corporate profit outlook and artificial intelligence (AI) investment certainly played a role.

‘Tis the Season of...Earnings…Interest Rates…and Trade

The last week of October delivered a flurry of impactful headlines across earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics — each shaping the investment landscape as we head into year-end. In this month's market update, we are sharing some key takeaways.

The Sandbox Shutdown

The October 1 deadline has passed, and the U.S. government has shut down. While political gridlock is never ideal, history suggests that shutdowns tend to be short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market.

Round Trip Rally

As Americans prepared their grills and beach chairs for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country were both on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.

Climbing the Wall of Worry

The latest recovery is another reminder that periods of turmoil can often create opportunities. Although stocks may pull back after their strong rally since the April 8 lows, the lesson is clear: in our view, staying the course during downturns is almost always the best strategy.

April Tariff Showers
April showers came a month early as stocks fell in March. Tariffs were the primary cause of the market jitters, although that uncertainty became too much for markets to shrug off once economic data started to weaken.

With everything happening in the world right now, it’s understandable to feel unsettled. The combination of uncertainty—economic, political, and global—can create a real sense of anxiety, stress, and even frustration. You may be wondering what all of this means for your family, your future, and the financial foundation you’ve worked so hard to build. It’s natural to have questions, and you’re not alone in feeling this way. We want to assure you that we are here for you. 

Looking back, 2024 clearly echoed many of the themes from the prior year. By and large, the economy continued to defy expectations and surprised once again to the upside. Stocks continued their strong performance, driven by powerful trends in artificial intelligence and technology. On the other hand, the bond market experienced another lackluster year amid policy ambiguity and uneasiness over rising debt levels.