This article was featured in Maine Seniors Magazine, December 2020
On my very first ride on a mountain bike a couple of years ago, my brand-new bike made it to the bottom of the first steep hill before I did!! …mountain bike disc brakes are quite sensitive to panicking fingers!
On my second ride, I did the two things you are not supposed to do when crossing a bridge. I stopped pedaling and looked down, and yes, I went off the side of the bridge. This inauspicious start to my life as a mountain biker left me a bit risk-averse on the trails.
I often write with analogies, and for years, have used nautical terms to describe our relationships with our clients. Their treasure is sailing with us on a boat they spent decades building, and it is the job of our crew to get it to their dream destination.
Today, I trade the boat for a mountain bike and head out with you on an 8,000-day retirement journey.
Team Golden Pond's goal is to average 8mph so we can stay well ahead of our archrivals on the trail… Team Inflation and Taxes, which we expect will be cruising the trails at about 4 mph. Before we begin, let’s take a look at the conditions of the trails that lay ahead of us: The following trails are primarily UPHILL… filled with rocks, roots, and curves and yes, they also have quite a few of those nasty bridges:
- Coronavirus Climb
- Deficit and Debt Ditch
- Politics of the Extreme Ravine
- Rich and Poor Gap
- Made in China Exchange
Our focus on the uphill trails can't be to look for shortcuts and take unnecessary risks to attain the magic 8mph, but rather maintain balance and composure and keep climbing. We must resist looking down at the rough, uphill terrain right under our bike, but instead, commit to staying strong enough and keeping our bike maintained to be ready to accelerate on the downhills and straightaways up ahead. The worst thing we could ever do would be to panic and stop pedaling!
These trails are mostly DOWNHILL with lots of straightaways and machine-groomed smooth surfaces:
- Vaccine and Immunotherapy Fast Track
- Fed and Fiscal Stimulus Alley
- Fiscal Stimulus Extension—Under Construction
- Innovation and Productivity Acceleration Pass
- Low Inflation and Taxes Turnpike
It is on these trails where we should be able to make up time lost climbing hills and accelerate to an average of over 8 mph. However, our experience has taught us to always be ready with the brakes (gently!) as hidden at the bottom of the hill might be a washed-out bridge, hairpin turn, or…a hungry BEAR! Can we get there from here?
Unlike yours truly, who is a relative newcomer to the real sport of mountain biking, Team Golden Pond has collectively spent over 150 years on the investment trails and has pedaled up, over, and around the steepest of hills and through the fiercest of storms. In addition, we invest in modern performance technology, so we are riding bikes with sophisticated gears and lightweight materials for acceleration (Stocks) but, just as important, disc brakes, shocks, and big tough tires for when the trails get bumpy (Bonds) and a GPS and trail map to guide us when the trail gets dark and foggy (IPS, or Investment Policy Statement). We also regularly inspect our equipment and perform any maintenance and upgrades required to give us every edge possible on the trail (reviews and rebalancing).
An assessment of the terrain on the horizon tells us that we are likely to spend a couple of years on very expensive machine-groomed trails (which we will eventually have to figure out how to pay for). Then it will be a bit bumpier and uphill for a few years beyond.
Sticking with the mountain biking analogy, history does suggest that staying under control and in balance near the middle of the trail rather than the left or right edge is critical to getting to our destination. We must also resist the temptation to wander off on what might seem to be secret shortcuts that do not show up on our IPS/GPS.
To make it a successful 8,000-day journey, we must not overreact to the bumps, curves, and bridges directly in front of us, but instead put our trust in our training and safety gear. If we use our patience and strength to climb the steepest of rocky hills and be ready with the brakes on downhill straightaways, history and our experience suggest we will finish our 8,000-day journey well ahead of Team Inflation and Taxes.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.